Experts: The Qubit Threshold Threatening Cryptography May Be Falling

In a Discover Magazine overview, Scott Aaronson of UT Austin noted that two studies published in March 2026 suggest the number of qubits needed for a cryptographically meaningful quantum computer could fall to roughly 25,000-30,000.

These figures are expert estimates, not a demonstrated attack, and current hardware has not reached this capability. The findings nevertheless reinforce the importance of migrating to post-quantum cryptography.